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New Weeknd, Playboi Carti & Tate McRae: Which Hot 100 Top 20 Debut Will End Up the Biggest Hit?


Five Burning Questions looks at the top 10 debuts of Weeknd's "Dancing in the Flames," Playboi Carti's "All Red" & Tate McRae's "It's OK, I'm OK."

Katie Bain: I’m not surprised to see The Weeknd’s first solo track of the year debut higher than his recent The Idol-bred group efforts, and 14 feels like a good starting point for the song, which I think is one that grows on the ears with each listen. 1 and radio-boosted hits by Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Kendrick Lamar and Morgan Wallen have logged months in the upper frame, new tracks like “Flames” have a tougher time trying to break through in their first weeks of release. The bar for breakout pop stars assuming the A-list has obviously been raised this year with the ascents of Roan and Carpenter (and the comeback of Charli XCX), so I don’t think she’s quite there yet — but damn if she isn’t starting to check those boxes left and right at this point.

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