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It Looks Like Emilia Pérez Is the Best Picture Front-runner Right Now
A lot can change between now and Oscar night, but here’s a snapshot of what the Best Picture race looks at the start of Phase Two.
It’s almost certainly too weird to benefit from the preferential ballot, but it stands a good chance at coming away from Oscar night with the Actress and Makeup trophies — a haul Mubi would have bitten their arm off for at the beginning of the season. The good news for Conclave is that it has an extremely plausible path to the Best Picture trophy: win at BAFTA, where it led the field in total nominations, take the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, then ride the preferential ballot to glory. In the kind of radical shakeup we haven’t seen since Bob Dylan plugged in that Stratocaster, James Mangold’s biopic blew through the precursors like a hurricane, brushing aside those Walk Hard comparisons with nary a second thought.
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