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Are the BAFTAs the True Predictor of Oscar Things to Come?

The BAFTAs are either the most crucial Oscar precursor or the most rogue.

Indeed, “Conclave” qualifies for BAFTA’s best British film award — that nomination secured it the numerical lead ahead of French auteur Jacques Audiard’s wild cartel musical “Emilia Pérez,” though with 12 and 11 nods, respectively, it’s pretty much level pegging. If BAFTA voters aren’t feeling that locally or European-inclined this year, however, the American nominees best positioned to crash the party are Brady Corbet’s vast mid-century epic “The Brutalist,” with nine nominations, or Sean Baker’s dark sexworker comedy “Anora” — which, with its recent surprise DGA and PGA wins, is the newly anointed frontrunner Stateside — with six. Prior to the campaign-damaging controversy over star Karla Sofia Gascón’s racist and Islamophobic tweets, it seemed that political topicality would benefit the trans-identity celebration of “Emilia Pérez.” “Conclave,” meanwhile, can claim some less tainted thematic currency in light of Pope Francis’ revived feud with the new POTUS (not to mention the film’s own conversation-stoking twist).

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